Tropical Storm Melissa Expected to Rapidly Intensify Into Category 4 Hurricane
Slow-moving system threatens eastern Caribbean with rain, wind, and flooding

October 22, 2025 – 5:00 p.m. Update

Tropical Storm Melissa, currently churning in the Caribbean Sea, is showing signs of becoming a powerful and dangerous hurricane early next week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that Melissa could reach Category 4 strength by Monday, bringing the potential for destructive winds, torrential rainfall, and life-threatening flooding to parts of the eastern Caribbean.

As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, Melissa’s center was located about 320 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, moving slowly to the west at just 2 mph. The storm’s maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, but forecasters expect a dramatic increase in strength as it drifts over warm Caribbean waters in the coming days.

Meteorologists note that Melissa’s slow movement is due to its position in a weak steering environment, which is causing the system to nearly stall. This sluggish pace not only makes forecasting its exact path challenging, but also increases the threat of prolonged rainfall over affected areas. The latest NHC forecast cone reflects this uncertainty — appearing almost circular through the weekend as Melissa meanders westward.

For now, the storm continues to battle strong wind shear and pockets of dry mid-level air, both of which have prevented significant intensification. However, as those limiting factors ease and sea-surface temperatures remain well above average, conditions will soon favor rapid strengthening.

“Once Melissa escapes the current shear zone and finds more favorable upper-level winds, we could see a period of explosive development,” said a senior NHC forecaster Wednesday evening. “Communities across the eastern Caribbean should closely monitor this system.”

By early next week, Melissa is projected to reach major hurricane status, with peak sustained winds potentially exceeding 130 mph — powerful enough to cause catastrophic damage if it makes landfall.

Residents of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands are urged to review emergency plans and stay alert for possible tropical storm or hurricane watches later this week.

Forecasters emphasize that the storm’s slow movement and expansive moisture field could result in significant rainfall totals, flash flooding, and mudslides — even in areas far from Melissa’s center.

The next full advisory from the National Hurricane Center will be issued at 11 p.m. EDT.