“Don’t blame me — blame AccuWeather.”

That, in essence, is the message as forecasters set out their expectations for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season — and it’s a prediction that demands attention rather than panic.

According to AccuWeather, between 11 and 16 named storms are expected this year. That figure sits broadly within the historical range, but it’s the detail behind the numbers that matters.

Because, as ever with hurricane forecasting, it’s not simply about how many storms form — but how many intensify, where they track, and crucially, whether they make landfall.

There is an implicit warning here. Warm sea surface temperatures and favourable atmospheric conditions could allow some of those systems to strengthen into hurricanes — and potentially more severe ones.

In other words, a “normal” season on paper can still carry very real risks.

So while there’s no suggestion of an exceptional or record-breaking year, complacency would be misplaced. Coastal communities, particularly across the southeastern United States and the Caribbean, will be watching developments closely in the months ahead.

Because when it comes to hurricanes, it only takes one.