The Atlantic Hurricane Season Is About to Get Real

After a deceptively quiet start to the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, recent developments signal that things are about to shift dramatically. A potent marine heat wave is settling over vast swaths of the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico—raising the stakes as the seasonal peak approaches.

Heat in the Waters

Persistent marine heat wave conditions—marked by prolonged, well-above-average sea surface temperatures—have developed over the western Atlantic and Gulf. These record-warm waters are capable of fueling stronger, wetter storms, much like those seen during Hurricane Helene and Milton last year.

In the Gulf, sea surface temperatures are approximately 2 °F above historical averages, with coastal waters near Florida reaching as high as 90 °F. In the Florida Keys, surface temperatures recently climbed to a sweltering 99 °F, further intensifying concerns.

A Slow Start, But Turning Up Now

The season got off to an unusually slow start. Only Tropical Storms Andrea, Barry, and Chantal formed early in the season, contributing to a notably sluggish start compared to the hyperactive 2024 season. However, that lull appears to be ending:

Tropical Storm Dexter formed on August 4, though it remains a distant threat.
Other areas of interest are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center: one off the U.S. East Coast and another in the eastern tropical Atlantic, each with moderate chances (30–60%) of development.

Why Now? The Perfect Storm

Forecasters warn that multiple key factors are aligning:

Marine heat wave — Warm water fuels storm intensity and moisture potential.
Atmospheric patterns — The Madden-Julian Oscillation could enhance storm activity post-mid-August, especially as it moves over Africa.
Climatological timing — The historic peak of the Atlantic season, centered around early to mid-September, is fast approaching, and activity has a strong likelihood of surge.

NOAA originally forecasted an above-average season, with 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes expected—driven largely by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures.

What’s Next & What to Watch

With historical data showing that about 80% of hurricanes form between early August and mid-October, the combination of tropical warmth and favorable atmospheric trends suggests the most intense phase is still ahead.

Residents along the U.S. East Coast, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean are urged to remain alert, follow updates from trusted sources like the National Hurricane Center, and prepare for a potentially active and impactful remainder of the season.

In short: after a sluggish opening, the Atlantic hurricane season is waking up—propelled by a marine heat wave that’s cranking up the risk of stronger, wetter storms just as the season hits its prime